Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
