Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
